Last year was challenging for petro-states. Due to the drop in oil prices is not only devalued their currencies, but their bonds fell and probabilities of default risen. Most notable trend was rise in default probability of Russia, that has less government debt, but been under pressure of sanctions has limited access to world financial markets. Its default probability (as implied by market prices and spreads of credit default swaps) has tripled from the year ago (check the chart by selecting the country from the ranking list on the left).
Notes: presented data are annual probabilities of sovereign defaults derived from Credit Default Swaps (CDS) spreads by Deutsche Bank Reserach team for various recovery rate assumptions. For most countries data as for 29 Dec 14 - 2 January 15 presented on barchart and the map. For a few countries data is some outdated, latest available number are introduced (check corresponding dataset and the graph). Assumptions about recovery rate (percentage of notional value repaid in event of default) highly affect implied default probabilities (the higher the assumption about the recovery rate, the higher the implicit default probability) and therefore they must be taken into account. The data provided for common assumtions of 40%, 25% and 60% recovery rates, for another assumptions see the corresponding dataset. For more information on underlying computation of default rates from CDS spreads see DB technical note
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